Axiom Home Page Forums General Discussion The Water Cooler Stocks

When comparing charts like that, you have to take into account the fact that economies have changed drastically around the world over the last 80 yrs and the world was a much different and "larger" place back then. One likes to think that with govt's cooperating(unlike in the 30's) we can avoid the same errors made back then.

The market goes up and the market goes down, but in the long run it goes up more than it goes down. That's all that anyone can realistically know, but it should be enough. Anyone who claims to be able to tell when, in what direction, and by how much the market is going to move is either a fool or a charlatan.

...or Jim Cramer. Oh, sorry John, you said fool. I stand corrected.

What you all have said is true but have you even looked at the charts I mentioned?

This video explains it well.

I've seen comparisons made before but there are different factors involved today than 80 yrs ago. That's not to say things won't end up the same way or completely the opposite, nobody really knows and that is why there is so much $$$ sitting on the sidelines.

This is all I'm pointing out. Here's the 2 charts.

The first one is the Dow Jones Industrial Average from about 1929 to 1930. It made a Head and Shoulders at the high on the left, then a big drop and made an inverted Head and Shoulders at the bottom, then slowly climbed or retraced about 50% of the way back up and made another Head and Shoulders just before it dropped again to the lows made the first time.

The second chart shows the same scenerio, but is 2007 through 2010 today. Not exactly the same, but pretty close. There's no guarantee that it will continue down as it did in 1930, but it HAS followed the same pattern, so far.

Edit: Kind of like a "Dead Cat Bounce" but on a much grander scale.

DJIA 1929-1930


DJIA 2007-2010

Recently I talked to the President of a private reit based in Southern Ontario here. Being private, they are not listed on the TSX or NYSE, and therefore are not subject to the wild fluctuations of said markets. This reit's business model, in a nutshell, is based primarily throughout Ontario investing in rental apartments in secondary markets. That is to say, generally they look at cities like Barrie, Kitchener, Oshawa ect vs downtown Toronto, Hamilton ect. They buy up blocks of apartment buildings so that they keep the managerial fees to a minimum as they can hire a person/team to then run more than one ap't in a particular locale. They look for buildings with approx 95-96% rental capacity so they can go into the apartments which are vacant, then upgrade them to increase the value of the next rental. Annually, they pay out 8% with a monthly distribution which is in line with a couple of other private reit's I've looked at.

Have any of you guys/gals looked into private reit's as an investment possibility? thoughts?

Not me. I got out of my "short the market/make money when the market goes down stock" because I was losing money.

Normally what I do, is, by using Scottrade, I look at what has either gone up big or gone down big and then watch them on a chart. If the one that goes up is holding it's position, I might buy some and just watch it closely, like I did on Friday. Or, I might see something that went down big, but then is quickly going back up. That one is a lot more risky and definitely has to be watched real close.

INFN is one of those stocks that went up big overnight, then I bought it on Friday at 8.35, now it's still going up and is at 9.60. Parabolic price increases tend to have a quick downward jump also, if some big holders decide to cash in.