Axiom Home Page Forums General Discussion The Water Cooler Stocks

Attn: Mark;


AARP and VNA????

It appears that you have an aging issue going on.

Don't worry. AARP won't find you until your 49th birthday. And they WILL find you. And it WILL scare you.

If they had recently turned 49, AARP could have located Osama and Whitey.

I sure am glad that I moved all of my 401(k) from mutual funds to "Key Guaranteed Portfolio Fund" (like a savings account), a couple of months ago. I'm getting paid a meager 2.10% interest, which is a whole lot better than riding the market down. When a bottom is identified, I'm going to buy into "Maxim Index 600" which is a low cost fund of small cap stocks. Small caps go down the most in a bad market, but go up the fastest in a recovery. In an IRA or cash account, you could buy TNA instead (an ETF of small cap stocks).

In another account I made 15% on the way down by buying SDS (an ETF that's the opposite of the S&P 500). It goes up when the market goes down. I've sold that one to lock in the gain.

Now, I'm just waiting for a bottom. It might not recover as fast as it did in 2009-2010, though.

I primarily use these 2 sites for information, other than news:

1) www.StockTiming.com
2) www.MrBananaHeadStocks.com

So, you can see that I get excited when the market goes down. The more I can build up my 401(k), the sooner I can retire. I plan on converting it to an IRA and trade my way through retirement, so hopefully, I can keep up with inflation and make a good living this way.

People who say you can't time the market either have never tried, or tried and failed. Or they just parot what everyone is saying. That's where the site StockTiming helps a lot and makes it easy. And.. you never trade against the direction the market is going. And.. you always sell a trade before it becomes a loss, even if you just bought it, and it turns around and heads the wrong direction. And (one more).. you keep it as long as it's making money.

It would be interesting to compare a large sampling of active investors' portfolios against those of hands-off investors who put everything into index funds over the long term.

Would the active investors' portfolio value be significantly higher enough to justify the huge time investment required? Remember that all the time you put into trading stocks comes with an opportunity cost: http://www.thesimpledollar.com/2009/06/15/the-time-cost-of-investing-does-obliviousness-pay-off/

I've compared my results with those, non-opportunists at work. Most examples go like this, about 2 months ago before the latest downturn. "I've almost caught up with my high before the down turn in 2008.", as compared to my "That's interesting, mines 40% higher than it was then".

Well, at least I haven't lost any money in my 401k. It's been in Guaranteed Funds (think savings account) before the market fell, plus it's sitting at it's highest dollar amount. I'm now just waiting for something that looks like a bottom to get back into risky stuff that moves the most and has the lowest fees. That also doesn't gripe when I trade my money in and out of. I've received letters from my 401k (whomevers) that's told me not to trade so much. So far, I haven't gotten any of those in the past 2 or 3 trades, so perhaps it's related to exactly 'what' I trad in and out of. You just got to love the lack of communication from financial people.

I left a comment in a 401k blog recently, that told about my method. This is in a blog from a so-called "financial expert" that says the best strategy is just to buy and hold. Of course, my comment got deleted since it didn't agree with his philosophy.

Today's the kind of day that I'm glad my 401k is at it's highest level ever and it's in cash equivalent.

Just had to rub it in.

Now if the market would settle so I can buy back in at low price.

Give it a year or so, there will be plenty of settling.

I took a chance and bought risk that'll take place tonight. Hopefully the market will recover for at least a few days, before I convert it all to cash again.

Roll them dice.